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<title data-rh="true">Arrêtez d’investir comme un touriste. - by Caroline Mignaux</title>
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24 24" fill="#000000" stroke-width="2" stroke="#000" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon"><g><title></title><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="24" height="24" viewbox="0 0 24 24" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-message-circle"><path d="M7.9 20A9 9 0 1 0 4 16.1L2 22Z"></path></svg></g></svg><div class="label">2</div></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" id="radix-P0-24" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft post-ufi-button style-button has-label with-border"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewbox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="2" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" class="icon"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg><div class="label">4</div></button></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft post-ufi-button style-button has-label with-border"><div class="label">Partager</div></button></div></div></div></div><div class="visibility-check"></div><div><div class="dropCap-hcUVpW"><div class="available-content"><div dir="auto" class="body markup"><p>95 % des “investisseurs” font la même chose.</p><p>Ils achètent ce dont on parle, vendent quand ça baisse, et recommencent.</p><p>Résultat : ils perdent.</p><p><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/thomas-rebaud/">Thomas Rebaud</a><span>, lui, a fait l’exact inverse.</span></p><p><span>Il a misé sur Anthropic, Revolut et SpaceX avant tout le monde. Avant ça, il a monté une Licorne et maintenant, il a lancé </span><a href="http://akka.app">akka.app</a><span> qui cartonne.</span></p><p>Et il m’a dit, sans prendre de gants, pourquoi presque tout le monde se plante…</p><p>Prenons-en de la graine 🌱</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IxTa!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b535287-4510-400f-9b7e-3c514d84a099_1920x1080.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM" class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img can-restack"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IxTa!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b535287-4510-400f-9b7e-3c514d84a099_1920x1080.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IxTa!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b535287-4510-400f-9b7e-3c514d84a099_1920x1080.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IxTa!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b535287-4510-400f-9b7e-3c514d84a099_1920x1080.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IxTa!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b535287-4510-400f-9b7e-3c514d84a099_1920x1080.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"/><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IxTa!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b535287-4510-400f-9b7e-3c514d84a099_1920x1080.jpeg" width="1456" height="819" data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3b535287-4510-400f-9b7e-3c514d84a099_1920x1080.jpeg","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":819,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":1442934,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/jpeg","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":"https://newsletter.carolinemignaux.com/i/200150136?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b535287-4510-400f-9b7e-3c514d84a099_1920x1080.jpeg","isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" alt srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IxTa!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b535287-4510-400f-9b7e-3c514d84a099_1920x1080.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IxTa!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b535287-4510-400f-9b7e-3c514d84a099_1920x1080.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IxTa!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b535287-4510-400f-9b7e-3c514d84a099_1920x1080.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IxTa!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b535287-4510-400f-9b7e-3c514d84a099_1920x1080.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high" class="sizing-normal"/></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewbox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr/></div><h3 class="header-anchor-post"><strong><mark data-color="#ffff00" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">1. Investir dans l’IA, c’est pas savoir rentrer. Mais savoir sortir.</mark></strong><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-alignItems-center pc-position-absolute pc-reset header-anchor-parent"><div class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA"><div id="§1-investir-dans-lia-cest-pas-savoir-rentrer-mais-savoir-sortir" class="pencraft pc-reset header-anchor offset-top"></div><button tabindex="0" type="button" aria-label="Link" data-href="https://newsletter.carolinemignaux.com/i/200150136/1-investir-dans-lia-cest-pas-savoir-rentrer-mais-savoir-sortir" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft iconButton-mq_Et5 iconButtonBase-dJGHgN buttonBase-GK1x3M buttonStyle-r7yGCK size_sm-G3LciD priority_secondary-S63h9o"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18" height="18" viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-link"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></button></div></div></h3><p><em>“On est dans une bulle. La question, c’est à quel endroit de la courbe on se trouve.”</em></p><p>Thomas est clair : la tech IA est réelle. Mais les valo actuelles ne le sont pas !</p><p>Quand tout le monde parle d’un investissement, les particuliers rentrent. Et ceux déjà dedans attendent ce moment, qui fait monter leur valeur.</p><p>L’erreur classique : rentrer quand l’euphorie est à son max. Sortir quand c’est trop tard.</p><p>Le bon réflexe : comprendre à quel endroit de la courbe on est. Et avoir l’audace de sortir avant les autres.</p><pre><code><strong>Hack 💡</strong><code> Cette semaine, pour chaque actif IA que vous avez déjà :
1) Demandez-vous : est-ce que j'ai un plan de sortie ? A quelle date ?
2) Si la réponse est non : c'est que vous avez spéculé. Pas investi.
3) Notez une condition précise de sortie (ex : si la valeur double, je revends 50 %).
→ L'investissement, c'est pas du feeling. C'est un système.</code></code></pre><div><hr/></div><h3 class="header-anchor-post"><strong><mark data-color="#ffff00" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">2. Nvidia et OpenAI font tourner des milliards en rond</mark></strong><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-alignItems-center pc-position-absolute pc-reset header-anchor-parent"><div class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA"><div id="§2-nvidia-et-openai-font-tourner-des-milliards-en-rond" class="pencraft pc-reset header-anchor offset-top"></div><button tabindex="0" type="button" aria-label="Link" data-href="https://newsletter.carolinemignaux.com/i/200150136/2-nvidia-et-openai-font-tourner-des-milliards-en-rond" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft iconButton-mq_Et5 iconButtonBase-dJGHgN buttonBase-GK1x3M buttonStyle-r7yGCK size_sm-G3LciD priority_secondary-S63h9o"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18" height="18" viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-link"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></button></div></div></h3><p>Voici ce qui se passe réellement :</p><p>Nvidia investit 100 Md$ dans OpenAI → OpenAI rachète des serveurs à Nvidia → Nvidia déclare 50 Md$ de revenus → son action monte.</p><p>Et ça recommence avec Microsoft, Google, Amazon.</p><p>Des revenus “pipés”. </p><p>Légaux. Mais fragiles.</p><p><span>Si OpenAI fait son IPO et que les chiffres déçoivent ? </span><br/><span>Tout le secteur trinque. Comme les “.com” en 2000, ou les NFT.</span></p><p><em>“Quand c’est tombé, ça a lavé tout le monde. Et c’est toujours les gens qui n’avaient pas beaucoup d’argent qui prennent.”</em></p><pre><code><strong>Hack</strong><code> 💡 Avant d'investir dans une boîte IA, posez ces 3 questions :
1) Est-ce que ses revenus viennent de vrais clients externes, ou de partenariats circulaires entre géants ?
2) Est-ce que la boîte pourrait exister sans les géants qui la portent (OpenAI, Microsoft, Google) ?
3) Qu'est-ce qui se passe pour cette boîte si l'IPO d'OpenAI déçoit ?
→ Si vous n'avez pas de réponse claire : c'est un signal.</code></code></pre><div><hr/></div><h3 class="header-anchor-post"><strong><mark data-color="#ffff00" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">3. Arrêtez le “stock picking”.</mark></strong><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-alignItems-center pc-position-absolute pc-reset header-anchor-parent"><div class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA"><div id="§3-arretez-le-stock-picking" class="pencraft pc-reset header-anchor offset-top"></div><button tabindex="0" type="button" aria-label="Link" data-href="https://newsletter.carolinemignaux.com/i/200150136/3-arretez-le-stock-picking" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft iconButton-mq_Et5 iconButtonBase-dJGHgN buttonBase-GK1x3M buttonStyle-r7yGCK size_sm-G3LciD priority_secondary-S63h9o"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18" height="18" viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-link"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></button></div></div></h3><p>74 % des gens sur Trade Republic, Robinhood ou similaires perdent de l’argent.</p><p>Les 26 % restants sous-performent les ETF de 4 à 6 points.</p><p>Statistiquement, la totalité des particuliers qui font ça perdent de l’argent.</p><p><em>“C’est un métier qui s’appelle trader. Ça se fait toute la journée. Si c’est pas votre métier, vous ne surperformerez pas le marché. C’est tout.”</em></p><p>Son conseil selon votre capital :</p><p><span>10 000 € → gardez-le liquide, 2-3 % sans risque. Ne touchez à rien.</span><br/><span>25-50 000 € → commencez à réfléchir : 30 % cash, ETF long terme, début de non-coté.</span><br/><span>50 000 € + → 15 K€ cash, reste en ETF + investissement privé (minimum 20-30 boîtes).</span></p><pre><code><strong>Hack</strong><code> 💡 Le test du professionnel :
Ouvrez votre application d'investissement. Regardez les 10 derniers trades que vous avez faits.
1) Sur combien avez-vous fait une analyse fondamentale réelle (> 2h de recherche) ?
2) Combien ont été décidés sur du feeling, une actu, ou un conseil d'un ami ?
→ Si réponse 2 > réponse 1 : vous spéculez, vous n'investissez pas.
Mettez cet argent dans un ETF et dormez tranquille.</code></code></pre><div><hr/></div><h3 class="header-anchor-post"><strong><mark data-color="#ffff00" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">4. La vraie valeur, elle est avant l’IPO</mark></strong><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-alignItems-center pc-position-absolute pc-reset header-anchor-parent"><div class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA"><div id="§4-la-vraie-valeur-elle-est-avant-lipo" class="pencraft pc-reset header-anchor offset-top"></div><button tabindex="0" type="button" aria-label="Link" data-href="https://newsletter.carolinemignaux.com/i/200150136/4-la-vraie-valeur-elle-est-avant-lipo" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft iconButton-mq_Et5 iconButtonBase-dJGHgN buttonBase-GK1x3M buttonStyle-r7yGCK size_sm-G3LciD priority_secondary-S63h9o"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18" height="18" viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-link"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></button></div></div></h3><p>Ceux qui sont rentrés dans Airbnb quand ça valait 10 M$ ont fait x10 000.</p><p>Ceux qui sont rentrés après l’introduction en bourse ? Peut-être x2, si tout va bien.</p><p><em>“La plupart de la valeur, elle se fait avant que la boîte devienne publique.”</em></p><p><span>Thomas utilise </span><a href="https://www.akka.app">aka.app</a><span> pour investir dans des boîtes privées dès 300 €. Anthropic, Revolut, SpaceX, il y est entré en privé, quand les valorisations étaient encore raisonnables.</span></p><p>Le principe : investir dans minimum 20-30 boîtes. Pas une ou deux. Parce que les boîtes se plantent.</p><pre><code>Hack 💡 Pour commencer à investir en privé sans se planter :
1) N'allez jamais sur une marketplace où vous choisissez seul sur une vidéo de 3 minutes.
2) Entourez-vous de gens qui investissent déjà : les bons deals se partagent en communauté.
3) Commencez petit (300-500 € par ticket), sur 20+ boîtes, sur du long terme (5-7 ans).
→ L'objectif n'est pas de trouver la licorne. Mais de ne pas mettre tous ses œufs dans le même panier.</code></pre><div><hr/></div><h3 class="header-anchor-post"><strong><mark data-color="#ffff00" style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">5. Pour être bon, il faut perdre…</mark></strong><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-alignItems-center pc-position-absolute pc-reset header-anchor-parent"><div class="pencraft pc-display-contents pc-reset pubTheme-yiXxQA"><div id="§5-pour-etre-bon-il-faut-perdre" class="pencraft pc-reset header-anchor offset-top"></div><button tabindex="0" type="button" aria-label="Link" data-href="https://newsletter.carolinemignaux.com/i/200150136/5-pour-etre-bon-il-faut-perdre" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft iconButton-mq_Et5 iconButtonBase-dJGHgN buttonBase-GK1x3M buttonStyle-r7yGCK size_sm-G3LciD priority_secondary-S63h9o"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="18" height="18" viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-link"><path d="M10 13a5 5 0 0 0 7.54.54l3-3a5 5 0 0 0-7.07-7.07l-1.72 1.71"></path><path d="M14 11a5 5 0 0 0-7.54-.54l-3 3a5 5 0 0 0 7.07 7.07l1.71-1.71"></path></svg></button></div></div></h3><p><em>“Si vous avez 50 000 € à 38 ans et que vous avez jamais investi, vous allez être nul. Il faut commencer tôt.”</em></p><p>L’investissement, ça s’apprend par la répétition. Pas par les livres.</p><p>Thomas a fait des erreurs. Il a cru en des CEOs visionnaires qui n’exécutaient pas. Il a misé sur des équipes incomplètes.</p><p>Et c’est comme ça qu’il est devenu bon.</p><p>Le vrai risque, ce n’est pas de perdre 500 € sur une boîte à 25 ans.</p><p>C’est d’avoir 100 000 € à 45 ans et de ne pas savoir quoi en faire.</p><pre><code><strong>Hack 💡</strong><code> Cette semaine, faites votre premier pas :
1) Ouvrez un compte ETF si vous n'en avez pas (PEA, assurance-vie). Mettez 50 € dedans. Maintenant.
2) Si vous voulez du privé : renseignez-vous sur aka.app ou une structure similaire.
3) Trouvez UNE personne dans votre entourage qui investit sérieusement. Invitez-la à déjeuner.
→ Le meilleur investissement que vous ferez cette année : votre entourage.</code></code></pre><div><hr/></div><p><strong>Mon plan d’action</strong></p><p><span>1. Définissez votre plan de SORTIE avant de rentrer dans n’importe quel actif IA</span><br/><span>2. Arrêtez le stock picking, mettez cet argent dans un ETF long terme</span><br/><span>3. Gardez toujours une poche cash (10-30 % selon votre capital)</span><br/><span>4. Commencez à investir en privé, accompagné, sur 20+ boîtes minimum</span><br/><span>5. 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4.84652 9.70374 5.28963 9.99915 5.83569C10.299 5.28516 10.6951 4.84204 11.1875 4.50635C11.6843 4.16618 12.2707 3.99609 12.9465 3.99609C13.4836 3.99609 13.9894 4.09904 14.4639 4.30493C14.9428 4.50635 15.3613 4.79728 15.7194 5.17773C16.0774 5.55819 16.3572 6.01025 16.5586 6.53394C16.7645 7.05762 16.8674 7.63725 16.8674 8.27283C16.8674 9.23067 16.6145 10.1818 16.1088 11.1262C15.603 12.0662 14.8891 12.9815 13.967 13.8722C13.0495 14.7584 11.9708 15.6044 10.731 16.41C10.6056 16.4906 10.4758 16.5622 10.3416 16.6249C10.2118 16.692 10.0976 16.7256 9.99915 16.7256Z"></path></g></svg></div>Liké par Caroline Mignaux</button></div></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-reset flex-grow-rzmknG"></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-reset triggerContainer-eX588u"><button tabindex="0" type="button" aria-label="Ellipsis" id="radix-P0-84" aria-haspopup="menu" aria-expanded="false" data-state="closed" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft trigger-j08Uop iconButton-mq_Et5 iconButtonBase-dJGHgN buttonBase-GK1x3M buttonStyle-r7yGCK size_sm-G3LciD priority_quaternary-kpMibu"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="16" height="16" viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-ellipsis"><circle cx="12" cy="12" r="1"></circle><circle cx="19" cy="12" r="1"></circle><circle cx="5" cy="12" r="1"></circle></svg></button></div></div><div class="comment-body expanded"><p><span>La stat qui dit tout : "74 % des gens sur Trade Republic, Robinhood ou similaires perdent de l’argent et les 26 % restants sous-performent les ETF de 4 à 6 points". Pourquoi passer du temps à investir compliqué quand on peut investir en 2 min / mois et obtenir +10% an ? Bonus : ça permet de consacrer le temps économisé à apprendre la salsa 💃🕺</span></p></div><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-16 pc-paddingTop-8 pc-justifyContent-flex-start pc-alignItems-center pc-reset comment-actions withShareButton-hQzuEn"><span class="pencraft pc-reset decoration-hover-underline-ClDVRM reset-IxiVJZ"><a class="pencraft pc-reset link-_X6et2 link-LIBpto"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-6 pc-alignItems-center pc-reset"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="16" height="16" viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="var(--color-fg-secondary-themed)" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-message-circle"><path d="M7.9 20A9 9 0 1 0 4 16.1L2 22Z"></path></svg><div class="pencraft pc-reset color-pub-secondary-text-hGQ02T line-height-20-t4M0El font-meta-MWBumP size-11-NuY2Zx weight-medium-fw81nC transform-uppercase-yKDgcq reset-IxiVJZ meta-EgzBVA">Répondre</div></div></a></span><span class="pencraft pc-reset decoration-hover-underline-ClDVRM reset-IxiVJZ"><a class="pencraft pc-reset link-_X6et2 link-LIBpto"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-6 pc-alignItems-center pc-reset"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="16" height="16" viewbox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="var(--color-fg-secondary-themed)" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-share"><path d="M4 12v8a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h12a2 2 0 0 0 2-2v-8"></path><polyline points="16 6 12 2 8 6"></polyline><line x1="12" x2="12" y1="2" y2="15"></line></svg><div class="pencraft pc-reset color-pub-secondary-text-hGQ02T line-height-20-t4M0El font-meta-MWBumP size-11-NuY2Zx weight-medium-fw81nC transform-uppercase-yKDgcq reset-IxiVJZ meta-EgzBVA">Partager</div></div></a></span></div><div data-state="closed" class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-reset overflow-hidden-WdpwT6"></div></div></div><div class="more-replies-container"><a href="https://newsletter.carolinemignaux.com/p/arretez-dinvestir-comme-un-touriste/comment/273155623" class="more-replies">1 réponse de Caroline Mignaux</a></div></div></div></div><a href="https://newsletter.carolinemignaux.com/p/arretez-dinvestir-comme-un-touriste/comments" class="more-comments">Un commentaire de plus...</a></div></div></div><div class="single-post-section"><div class="container"><div class="visibility-check"></div><div style="margin-left:-8px;margin-right:-8px;" aria-label="Pied de page des Meilleurs Posts" role="region" class="pencraft pc-paddingTop-24 pc-paddingBottom-24 pc-reset"><div class="portable-archive empty-list"><div aria-label="Onglets de tri d'archive" role="navigation" class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-12 pc-paddingLeft-8 pc-paddingRight-8 pc-paddingBottom-16 pc-justifyContent-space-between pc-alignItems-center pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-flexDirection-column pc-position-relative pc-minWidth-0 pc-reset bg-primary-zk6FDl 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stroke-linejoin=\\\"round\\\" class=\\\"lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2\\\"><polyline points=\\\"15 3 21 3 21 9\\\"></polyline><polyline points=\\\"9 21 3 21 3 15\\\"></polyline><line x1=\\\"21\\\" x2=\\\"14\\\" y1=\\\"3\\\" y2=\\\"10\\\"></line><line x1=\\\"3\\\" x2=\\\"10\\\" y1=\\\"21\\\" y2=\\\"14\\\"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div><hr></div><h3><strong><mark data-color=\\\"#ffff00\\\" style=\\\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);\\\">1. Investir dans l\u2019IA, c\u2019est pas savoir rentrer. Mais savoir sortir.</mark></strong></h3><p><em>\u201COn est dans une bulle. La question, c\u2019est \u00E0 quel endroit de la courbe on se trouve.\u201D</em></p><p>Thomas est clair : la tech IA est r\u00E9elle. Mais les valo actuelles ne le sont pas !</p><p>Quand tout le monde parle d\u2019un investissement, les particuliers rentrent. Et ceux d\u00E9j\u00E0 dedans attendent ce moment, qui fait monter leur valeur.</p><p>L\u2019erreur classique : rentrer quand l\u2019euphorie est \u00E0 son max. Sortir quand c\u2019est trop tard.</p><p>Le bon r\u00E9flexe : comprendre \u00E0 quel endroit de la courbe on est. Et avoir l\u2019audace de sortir avant les autres.</p><pre><code><strong>Hack \uD83D\uDCA1</strong><code> Cette semaine, pour chaque actif IA que vous avez d\u00E9j\u00E0 :\\n1) Demandez-vous : est-ce que j'ai un plan de sortie ? A quelle date ?\\n2) Si la r\u00E9ponse est non : c'est que vous avez sp\u00E9cul\u00E9. Pas investi.\\n3) Notez une condition pr\u00E9cise de sortie (ex : si la valeur double, je revends 50 %).\\n\\n\u2192 L'investissement, c'est pas du feeling. C'est un syst\u00E8me.</code></code></pre><div><hr></div><h3><strong><mark data-color=\\\"#ffff00\\\" style=\\\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);\\\">2. Nvidia et OpenAI font tourner des milliards en rond</mark></strong></h3><p>Voici ce qui se passe r\u00E9ellement :</p><p>Nvidia investit 100 Md$ dans OpenAI \u2192 OpenAI rach\u00E8te des serveurs \u00E0 Nvidia \u2192 Nvidia d\u00E9clare 50 Md$ de revenus \u2192 son action monte.</p><p>Et \u00E7a recommence avec Microsoft, Google, Amazon.</p><p>Des revenus \u201Cpip\u00E9s\u201D. </p><p>L\u00E9gaux. Mais fragiles.</p><p>Si OpenAI fait son IPO et que les chiffres d\u00E9\u00E7oivent ? <br>Tout le secteur trinque. Comme les \u201C.com\u201D en 2000, ou les NFT.</p><p><em>\u201CQuand c\u2019est tomb\u00E9, \u00E7a a lav\u00E9 tout le monde. Et c\u2019est toujours les gens qui n\u2019avaient pas beaucoup d\u2019argent qui prennent.\u201D</em></p><pre><code><strong>Hack</strong><code> \uD83D\uDCA1 Avant d'investir dans une bo\u00EEte IA, posez ces 3 questions :\\n1) Est-ce que ses revenus viennent de vrais clients externes, ou de partenariats circulaires entre g\u00E9ants ?\\n2) Est-ce que la bo\u00EEte pourrait exister sans les g\u00E9ants qui la portent (OpenAI, Microsoft, Google) ?\\n3) Qu'est-ce qui se passe pour cette bo\u00EEte si l'IPO d'OpenAI d\u00E9\u00E7oit ?\\n\\n\u2192 Si vous n'avez pas de r\u00E9ponse claire : c'est un signal.</code></code></pre><div><hr></div><h3><strong><mark data-color=\\\"#ffff00\\\" style=\\\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);\\\">3. Arr\u00EAtez le \u201Cstock picking\u201D.</mark></strong></h3><p>74 % des gens sur Trade Republic, Robinhood ou similaires perdent de l\u2019argent.</p><p>Les 26 % restants sous-performent les ETF de 4 \u00E0 6 points.</p><p>Statistiquement, la totalit\u00E9 des particuliers qui font \u00E7a perdent de l\u2019argent.</p><p><em>\u201CC\u2019est un m\u00E9tier qui s\u2019appelle trader. \u00C7a se fait toute la journ\u00E9e. Si c\u2019est pas votre m\u00E9tier, vous ne surperformerez pas le march\u00E9. C\u2019est tout.\u201D</em></p><p>Son conseil selon votre capital :</p><p>10 000 \u20AC \u2192 gardez-le liquide, 2-3 % sans risque. Ne touchez \u00E0 rien.<br>25-50 000 \u20AC \u2192 commencez \u00E0 r\u00E9fl\u00E9chir : 30 % cash, ETF long terme, d\u00E9but de non-cot\u00E9.<br>50 000 \u20AC + \u2192 15 K\u20AC cash, reste en ETF + investissement priv\u00E9 (minimum 20-30 bo\u00EEtes).</p><pre><code><strong>Hack</strong><code> \uD83D\uDCA1 Le test du professionnel :\\nOuvrez votre application d'investissement. Regardez les 10 derniers trades que vous avez faits.\\n1) Sur combien avez-vous fait une analyse fondamentale r\u00E9elle (> 2h de recherche) ?\\n2) Combien ont \u00E9t\u00E9 d\u00E9cid\u00E9s sur du feeling, une actu, ou un conseil d'un ami ?\\n\\n\u2192 Si r\u00E9ponse 2 > r\u00E9ponse 1 : vous sp\u00E9culez, vous n'investissez pas.\\nMettez cet argent dans un ETF et dormez tranquille.</code></code></pre><div><hr></div><h3><strong><mark data-color=\\\"#ffff00\\\" style=\\\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);\\\">4. La vraie valeur, elle est avant l\u2019IPO</mark></strong></h3><p>Ceux qui sont rentr\u00E9s dans Airbnb quand \u00E7a valait 10 M$ ont fait x10 000.</p><p>Ceux qui sont rentr\u00E9s apr\u00E8s l\u2019introduction en bourse ? Peut-\u00EAtre x2, si tout va bien.</p><p><em>\u201CLa plupart de la valeur, elle se fait avant que la bo\u00EEte devienne publique.\u201D</em></p><p>Thomas utilise <a href=\\\"https://www.akka.app\\\">aka.app</a> pour investir dans des bo\u00EEtes priv\u00E9es d\u00E8s 300 \u20AC. Anthropic, Revolut, SpaceX, il y est entr\u00E9 en priv\u00E9, quand les valorisations \u00E9taient encore raisonnables.</p><p>Le principe : investir dans minimum 20-30 bo\u00EEtes. Pas une ou deux. Parce que les bo\u00EEtes se plantent.</p><pre><code>Hack \uD83D\uDCA1 Pour commencer \u00E0 investir en priv\u00E9 sans se planter :\\n1) N'allez jamais sur une marketplace o\u00F9 vous choisissez seul sur une vid\u00E9o de 3 minutes.\\n2) Entourez-vous de gens qui investissent d\u00E9j\u00E0 : les bons deals se partagent en communaut\u00E9.\\n3) Commencez petit (300-500 \u20AC par ticket), sur 20+ bo\u00EEtes, sur du long terme (5-7 ans).\\n\\n\u2192 L'objectif n'est pas de trouver la licorne. Mais de ne pas mettre tous ses \u0153ufs dans le m\u00EAme panier.</code></pre><div><hr></div><h3><strong><mark data-color=\\\"#ffff00\\\" style=\\\"background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);\\\">5. Pour \u00EAtre bon, il faut perdre\u2026</mark></strong></h3><p><em>\u201CSi vous avez 50 000 \u20AC \u00E0 38 ans et que vous avez jamais investi, vous allez \u00EAtre nul. Il faut commencer t\u00F4t.\u201D</em></p><p>L\u2019investissement, \u00E7a s\u2019apprend par la r\u00E9p\u00E9tition. Pas par les livres.</p><p>Thomas a fait des erreurs. Il a cru en des CEOs visionnaires qui n\u2019ex\u00E9cutaient pas. Il a mis\u00E9 sur des \u00E9quipes incompl\u00E8tes.</p><p>Et c\u2019est comme \u00E7a qu\u2019il est devenu bon.</p><p>Le vrai risque, ce n\u2019est pas de perdre 500 \u20AC sur une bo\u00EEte \u00E0 25 ans.</p><p>C\u2019est d\u2019avoir 100 000 \u20AC \u00E0 45 ans et de ne pas savoir quoi en faire.</p><pre><code><strong>Hack \uD83D\uDCA1</strong><code> Cette semaine, faites votre premier pas :\\n1) Ouvrez un compte ETF si vous n'en avez pas (PEA, assurance-vie). Mettez 50 \u20AC dedans. Maintenant.\\n2) Si vous voulez du priv\u00E9 : renseignez-vous sur aka.app ou une structure similaire.\\n3) Trouvez UNE personne dans votre entourage qui investit s\u00E9rieusement. Invitez-la \u00E0 d\u00E9jeuner.\\n\\n\u2192 Le meilleur investissement que vous ferez cette ann\u00E9e : votre entourage.</code></code></pre><div><hr></div><p><strong>Mon plan d\u2019action</strong></p><p>1. D\u00E9finissez votre plan de SORTIE avant de rentrer dans n\u2019importe quel actif IA<br>2. Arr\u00EAtez le stock picking, mettez cet argent dans un ETF long terme<br>3. Gardez toujours une poche cash (10-30 % selon votre capital)<br>4. Commencez \u00E0 investir en priv\u00E9, accompagn\u00E9, sur 20+ bo\u00EEtes minimum<br>5. Investissez t\u00F4t, souvent, et entourez-vous de gens qui savent</p><p>Allez l\u2019\u00E9couter, cet \u00E9pisode est une gifle (la meilleure sorte). \u2665\uFE0F</p><div id=\\\"youtube2-aMseIzl9i_c\\\" class=\\\"youtube-wrap\\\" data-attrs=\\\"{"videoId":"aMseIzl9i_c","startTime":null,"endTime":null}\\\" data-component-name=\\\"Youtube2ToDOM\\\"><div class=\\\"youtube-inner\\\"><iframe src=\\\"https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/aMseIzl9i_c?rel=0&autoplay=0&showinfo=0&enablejsapi=0\\\" frameborder=\\\"0\\\" loading=\\\"lazy\\\" gesture=\\\"media\\\" allow=\\\"autoplay; fullscreen\\\" allowautoplay=\\\"true\\\" allowfullscreen=\\\"true\\\" width=\\\"728\\\" height=\\\"409\\\"></iframe></div></div><div><hr></div><div class=\\\"subscription-widget-wrap-editor\\\" data-attrs=\\\"{"url":"https://newsletter.carolinemignaux.com/subscribe?","text":"S'abonner","language":"fr"}\\\" data-component-name=\\\"SubscribeWidgetToDOM\\\"><div class=\\\"subscription-widget show-subscribe\\\"><div class=\\\"preamble\\\"><p class=\\\"cta-caption\\\">Vous avez aim\u00E9 ?<strong> Ne ratez pas les prochaine</strong></p></div><form class=\\\"subscription-widget-subscribe\\\"><input type=\\\"email\\\" class=\\\"email-input\\\" name=\\\"email\\\" placeholder=\\\"Tapez votre e-mail\u2026\\\" tabindex=\\\"-1\\\"><input type=\\\"submit\\\" class=\\\"button primary\\\" value=\\\"S'abonner\\\"><div class=\\\"fake-input-wrapper\\\"><div class=\\\"fake-input\\\"></div><div class=\\\"fake-button\\\"></div></div></form></div></div><p></p><p></p>\",\"has_dynamic_content\":false,\"truncated_body_text\":null,\"wordcount\":1037,\"post_preview_limit\":0,\"language\":\"fr\",\"postTags\":[],\"postCountryBlocks\":[],\"headlineTest\":null,\"coverImagePalette\":{\"Vibrant\":{\"rgb\":[185,113,83],\"population\":181},\"DarkVibrant\":{\"rgb\":[129,80,61],\"population\":377},\"LightVibrant\":{\"rgb\":[226,164,142],\"population\":167},\"Muted\":{\"rgb\":[99,108,124],\"population\":9},\"DarkMuted\":{\"rgb\":[87,55,42],\"population\":280},\"LightMuted\":{\"rgb\":[206,176,174],\"population\":35}},\"publishedBylines\":[{\"id\":6925166,\"name\":\"Caroline Mignaux\",\"handle\":\"carolinemignaux\",\"previous_name\":\"Caroline Mignaux \u26A1\uFE0F\",\"photo_url\":\"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c129b67c-7480-406e-975c-b95be9d2333f_704x704.png\",\"bio\":\"N\u00B01 Marketing \uD83C\uDDEB\uD83C\uDDF7 | Mum of Agence Personnelle & Marketing Square\u00AE Podcast (+2.5M \u00E9coutes) | +110K lecteurs\",\"profile_set_up_at\":\"2021-09-08T05:48:44.193Z\",\"reader_installed_at\":\"2023-03-13T13:29:36.985Z\",\"publicationUsers\":[{\"id\":51911,\"user_id\":6925166,\"publication_id\":333314,\"role\":\"admin\",\"public\":true,\"is_primary\":true,\"publication\":{\"id\":333314,\"name\":\"Bankable!\",\"subdomain\":\"carolinemignaux\",\"custom_domain\":\"newsletter.carolinemignaux.com\",\"custom_domain_optional\":false,\"hero_text\":\"Devenez LA personne avec qui tout le monde veut travailler.\",\"logo_url\":\"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7e08b0ba-a9e2-46da-b2dc-967a48c8bfd7_554x554.png\",\"author_id\":6925166,\"primary_user_id\":6925166,\"theme_var_background_pop\":\"#99A2F1\",\"created_at\":\"2021-04-11T21:36:56.084Z\",\"email_from_name\":\"Caroline Mignaux \",\"copyright\":\"Caroline Mignaux\",\"founding_plan_name\":\"Founding Member\",\"community_enabled\":true,\"invite_only\":false,\"payments_state\":\"paused\",\"language\":\"fr\",\"explicit\":false,\"homepage_type\":\"newspaper\",\"is_personal_mode\":false,\"logo_url_wide\":null}}],\"twitter_screen_name\":\"carolinemignaux\",\"is_guest\":false,\"bestseller_tier\":null,\"status\":null}],\"reaction\":null,\"reaction_count\":20,\"comment_count\":2,\"child_comment_count\":1,\"audio_items\":[{\"post_id\":200150136,\"voice_id\":\"en-US-NovaTurboMultilingualNeural\",\"audio_url\":\"https://substack-video.s3.amazonaws.com/video_upload/post/200150136/tts/6004e80f-dc28-4956-8615-c0fe203d8cda/en-US-NovaTurboMultilingualNeural.mp3\",\"type\":\"tts\",\"status\":\"completed\"}],\"is_geoblocked\":false,\"hasCashtag\":false},\"comments\":[{\"id\":273155623,\"body\":\"La stat qui dit tout : \\\"74 % des gens sur Trade Republic, Robinhood ou similaires perdent de l\u2019argent et les 26 % restants sous-performent les ETF de 4 \u00E0 6 points\\\". Pourquoi passer du temps \u00E0 investir compliqu\u00E9 quand on peut investir en 2 min / mois et obtenir +10% an ? Bonus : \u00E7a permet de consacrer le temps \u00E9conomis\u00E9 \u00E0 apprendre la salsa \uD83D\uDC83\uD83D\uDD7A\",\"body_json\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"attrs\":{\"schemaVersion\":\"v1\",\"title\":null},\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"La stat qui dit tout : \\\"74 % des gens sur Trade Republic, Robinhood ou similaires perdent de l\u2019argent et les 26 % restants sous-performent les ETF de 4 \u00E0 6 points\\\". Pourquoi passer du temps \u00E0 investir compliqu\u00E9 quand on peut investir en 2 min / mois et obtenir +10% an ? 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